Will the Scottish team at last break their long-standing losing streak?

Things were simpler then. The fourth meeting of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to symbolize the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

After defeating Ireland, Wales and England, New Zealand had at last been stopped in a international match.

A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he announced excitedly with considerable hope. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Leaving the stadium that evening, Scottish fans would have had optimism about what was to come. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and zero victories, but clear signs that maybe one was not far off.

A few seasons after, New Zealand beat the Scots. Half a decade later, they beat them again. Three years further on, same story. Five more years went by and, yes, you know the rest.

Modern Encounters

Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. Across New Zealand and beyond, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - locations have varied but results remain consistent.

During his tenure, Scotland's coach has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this is another level. This is 32 games across 120 years. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Squad Updates

Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to eight points, five points and eight points in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Through their brilliance, their power, their chicanery, they get the job done.

As match day approaches where the optimism that supporters maintained for Scottish success is likely diminishing. Optimism meets historical reality.

Key Absences

Recent updates revealed that Fagerson was unavailable. For Scotland's hopes it was like a kick in the guts.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's a freak and if available then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern.

In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations.

Replacement Concerns

Another absence is Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with his club. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. While competent, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, some logical, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the opening match of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They started slowly, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

By the Numbers

For all that their blasts at the end, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. Across international matches going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and fewer after halftime.

Strong opening performances, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and solid finishes. They come exploding out of the traps.

Required Performance

Against Scotland in 2022, they struck twice in the initial stages. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The clear message is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from the start - maintaining intensity.

Over the last decade, successful opponents have needed to score in the high-20s. Scotland have got into the 20s only twice in their past 13 games against New Zealand.

Conclusion

Perfect execution is required for Scotland. Everything. Wasted opportunities then forget it. A yellow card? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? It's over.

With perfect execution? Explosive start. Vocal support. Electric atmosphere. Clinical finishing. Russell being Russell. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Fantasy rugby, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, it's about time it came out; a century is sufficient.