Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
